Cycle analysis as of 2026-02-25 • ATH $126,210 (2025-10-06) • Low $60,187 (2026-02-07) • Current $65,100
Loading price data...93 data points
CYCLE HIGH
$126,210
CYCLE LOW
$60,187
2026-02-07
MAX DRAWDOWN
52.3%
PE (ENERGY)
0.740
DAYS FROM LOW
18d
RALLY OFF LOW
+8.2%
Price History
Price
28d MA
70d MA
91d MA
Regime Detection (0/3)
0% confidence — rally confirms at 60% plus a price breakout
Slope Flip (28-day)
28-day log return crosses from negative to positive
28 days ago price was $86,000 — need current to exceed. Est: ~2026-03-07
-27.8% over 28d
Price > 70-day MA
70d MA at $81,818 — price needs to close above
Gap: $16,718 below MA. MA falling, convergence may take weeks.
-20.4%
MA 28/91 Crossover
28d MA crosses above 91d MA (golden cross)
Slowest signal — typically fires weeks after the other two
-23.2%
Bottom Confidence 0%
Weighted signal strength (0-100)
DECLININGSTABILIZINGPROBABLEHIGH CONFCONFIRMED
Slope Momentum
0/40
28d return (3-day avg price)
Price vs 70d MA
0/35
3-day avg price vs 70d MA
MA Crossover
0/25
28d MA vs 91d MA spread
STAGED ENTRY STRATEGY
25%
at 40% conf
Scout
50%
rally confirmed
Build
100%
confirmed + 80%
Full
Assessment as of February 25, 2026
Bitcoin peaked at $126,210 on 2025-10-06 and has declined 52.3% to a low of $60,187 on 2026-02-07. The stored potential energy (PE) is 0.740 — significant but less than previous BTC cycles (2022: 1.50, 2018: 1.85).
Price has recovered +8.2% off the low over 18 days. Bottom confidence is at 0% — no meaningful regime change detected. The 28-day slope is still negative because 28 days ago BTC was at ~$86,000. The 70-day MA is at ~$81,818, above the current price. The model says: this is still in the decline phase. The bounce could be a dead cat.
What would change the status:
Becomes BOTTOMING when confidence reaches 20% (now 0%).
Current status since 2025-10-10: closed at a new cycle low.
What to watch for:
Slope flip (~2026-03-07): The 28-day return is still negative. The lookback window references $86,000 from 28 days ago — current price needs to exceed that level. If price holds, slope flips around 2026-03-07. Contributes up to 40 points. Price > 70d MA: The 70d MA is at $81,818. Price needs to either rally sharply or wait for the MA to drop. Contributes up to 35 points. MA crossover: 28d MA is -23.2% below 91d MA. Slowest signal — typically fires weeks after the others. Contributes up to 25 points.